Every four years the National Intelligence Council of the United States publishes a report on global trends. The latest report, Global Trends 2040 - A More Contested World, was published in March, 2021. This report is mostly ignored by both the mainstream media and the alternative media. I often scan news stories and I happened to notice an article about this very important report. I read it, all 156 pages of it.
Everyone should read and think about this report, but most won’t. Everyone should be interested in the future. People could at least read the four page Executive Summary. Perhaps a few people will read this essay with my thoughts which I can summarize in one sentence. The future does not look good.
The convergence of these trends will offer opportunities for innovation but also will leave some communities and states struggling to cope and adapt. Even apparent progress, such as new and advanced technologies, will be disruptive to many people’s lives and livelihoods, leaving them feeling insecure and forcing adaptation.
...likely to produce greater contestation at all levels than has been seen since the end of the Cold War, reflecting differing ideologies as well as contrasting views on the most effective way to organize society and tackle emerging challenges.
Within societies, there is increasing fragmentation and contestation over economic, cultural, and political issues.
...the relationships between societies and their governments in every region are likely to face persistent strains and tensions because of a growing mismatch between what publics need and expect and what governments can and will deliver.
...highly varied interactions are likely to produce a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment, undermine global multilateralism, and broaden the mismatch between transnational challenges and institutional arrangements to tackle them.
The report offers five scenarios of the future, only one with some optimism.
In Renaissance of Democracies, the world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies.
In A World Adrift, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules and institutions are largely ignored by major powers like China, regional players, and nonstate actors.
In Competitive Coexistence, the United States and China have prioritized economic growth and restored a robust trading relationship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage.
In Separate Silos, the world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the European Union (EU), Russia, and a couple of regional powers; these blocs are focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense.
In Tragedy and Mobilization, a global coalition, led by the EU and China working with nongovernmental organizations and revitalized multilateral institutions, is implementing far-reaching changes designed to address climate change, resource depletion, and poverty following a global food catastrophe caused by climate events and environmental degradation.
I wrote about the future in an earlier essay, About a Liminal Time, posted July 8, 2020.
Until a few years ago I saw current events generally supporting continued incremental progress through liberalism as practised in western democracies. Now I view current events through the possibilities of either breakdown or breakthrough, a liminal time.
Although the future is unknown and unknowable, it is wise to try to assess the possibilities and probabilities, as Global Trends 2040 does. But I do not think that the USA government and the National Intelligence Council can do so without bias. The report merely captures the thinking of the establishment driven by a desire for American hegemony.
Better thinkers, in my opinion, are those in the aspiring Game B community. Most are convinced that our current civilization is unsustainable with catastrophic failure possible unless much changes. These thinkers deeply understand the theory of complex systems, the essence of our current civilization. But they are not doomsdayers. Instead, they are trying to make a difference, a big difference, and reflect our best hope for building a new and better world.
One of those Game B thinkers is Jamie Wheal and I am currently reading his recently published book, Recapture the Rapture: Rethinking God, Sex, and Death in a World That's Lost Its Mind. It is much more worthwhile than Global Trends 2040. I am also eyeing other books by Game B thinkers scheduled for publication later this year.
These days I am very grateful that I was born in 1951. The past seventy years have been the best in all of history. I hope to live another thirty years but I think they will be considerably more difficult for most people.