I am writing the day before the election and I will start with a review of what I have written in the past.
About the US Election, posted November 2, 2020
2016 was a shock to me as it was to many people, including most pollsters and pundits. I had not expected Trump to run. I did not think he would win the nomination of his party. And I did not think he would beat Hillary. I was wrong every step of the way and that turned out to be good for me. (And Pat was right every step of the way.) It was not until the election results from Florida began coming in that the thought entered my mind that Trump could become President. In 2020 Florida will again be an early indicator of how this election will go.
About Taylor Swift
Posted on June 29, 2024
And I browse on X where the above picture is posted regularly by the Never Trump tribe.
I am aware of Taylor Swift emerging as one of the top influencers in the world today with approximately 279.5 million followers on Instagram.
"Which side are we on"
Posted on August 26, 2024
“I could be wrong” and in hindsight I think I was. I now believe that a second Trump term would make a big difference. As a Canadian, I like playing the American how would I vote game. I have stated publicly that I would vote for Cornel West. But in light of this past week, I think I would change my mind. If I were in a swing state I would probably vote for Kamala Harris.
Yesterday in the SPACE
Posted on September 11, 2024
Did the debate move the needle? The prediction markets say yes, significantly so. Trump dropped by three percentage points and Harris rose by four percentage points.
Yesterday in the SPACE
Posted on October 20, 2024
Although I am a Canadian, I share the urgency of Pinchbeck and his focus on doing all we can to prevent the re-election of Trump. His current series of articles are resonating strongly with me. He has no intention of letting go of his attachment to his opinions at this time and I applaud his efforts.
And, in my opinion, Pinchbeck and others who are like-minded are not suffering from Trump derangement syndrome.
About MAGA and Movements, posted October 22, 2024
What would MAGA look like if viewed through the eyes of Eric Hoffer who wrote The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements?
What would MAGA look like if viewed through the eyes of M. Scott Peck who wrote People of the Lie: The Hope For Healing Human Evil?
Election Perspectives from the SPACE
Posted on November 3, 2024
What are the people I trust in the SPACE saying about the election?
My Framing
I would like to be transparent about the metamodern lens through which I am viewing the election tomorrow.
Modernity is a tangled mess of complex, interwoven systems far beyond the control of anyone. There is no secret cabal. There is no Savior. But the Office of the President of the USA is the most powerful position in the world. Who occupies that position makes a significant difference.
We are living in a liminal time between possible Breakthrough or possible Breakdown. Our current civilization, Modernity, is unsustainable and at growing risk of collapse. In my opinion, the liminal space will shrink more rapidly if Trump becomes President. Therefore, I would vote for Harris, although I cannot because I am a Canadian.
Modernity is like a Bus speeding towards the edge of a cliff. No one is driving the Bus. In my opinion, if Trump is the illusionary driver, the Bus accelerates. If Harris is the illusionary driver, it may slow down a little bit. Therefore, I would vote for Harris.
I have been following Polymarket.
I prompted Perplexity AI: You are an experienced political analyst. Do you think the Presidential forecast on Polymarket is being manipulated by wealthy players?
Concerns have arisen regarding the potential manipulation of betting odds on Polymarket, particularly in favor of Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Recent reports indicate that significant financial activity on the platform may not accurately reflect genuine market sentiment but rather be influenced by a small number of wealthy players…
The manipulation of betting odds on platforms like Polymarket can have significant implications for political discourse and public perception. If wealthy individuals can influence these markets to project an image of inevitability for a candidate, it may affect voter behavior and media narratives leading up to the election. As noted by political strategist Tom Bonier, perceptions of strength or weakness in candidates can be crucial for their electoral support.
In conclusion, while Polymarket provides an interesting avenue for gauging political outcomes through betting, the evidence suggests that its current presidential election odds may be skewed due to manipulation by wealthy players. This situation underscores the need for greater scrutiny and regulation in prediction markets to ensure their reliability as indicators of electoral outcomes.
My search on the current state of prediction markets gave the following results.
Based on the provided search results, here is a summary of what prediction markets are saying about the presidential election at this moment:
- Kalshi, a prediction market startup, gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 45% probability of winning, up from 35% earlier in the week. This is higher than poll-based models, which give Harris around 48% implied odds.
- Polymarket, another prediction market, gives former President Donald Trump a 67% chance of winning, but researchers have raised concerns about potential market manipulation and “wash” trading on the platform.
- Robinhood, a financial services company, has launched its own presidential election market, allowing users to bet on whether Trump or Harris will win. The odds are not explicitly stated in the search results, but it’s mentioned that Trump is still favored.
- PredictIt, a prediction market platform, has seen a shift in its odds, with Trump’s spread over Harris vanishing, and Iowa, a crucial battleground state, now favoring Harris.
- Overall, while there is some variation in the odds across different platforms, prediction markets are indicating that Trump is still favored to win, with odds ranging from around 55% to 67%.
I asked Perplexity AI to identify and summarize major models for predicting the presidential election at this moment and the results gave me no comfort.
Fudan University’s Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
Prediction: Donald Trump has a probability of over 60% to win the presidency.
Wake Forest University’s Political Science Models
Prediction: Eight out of twelve models anticipate a Trump victory in the Electoral College.
Allan Lichtman vs. Nate Silver
Allan Lichtman: Known for his historical prediction model based on 13 keys to presidential elections, Lichtman predicts a Harris victory based on at least eight favorable keys for her.
Nate Silver: His statistical model has accurately predicted many elections but favored Trump this time while still projecting a possible Harris win. Silver's approach relies heavily on polling data, which can be volatile.
And I looked at RealClearPolitics.
Other Articles
It seems that none of the Game A Galaxy Brains who I respect are supporting Trump.
In The Most Important Election of My Lifetime…Again, Michael Shermer writes,
Regardless of what happens next week, we’re going to be fine. If Harris wins, her administration will mostly try to continue the policies of the Biden administration, and the Republicans will try to block them at every step. To what extent they can will depend on who controls the House and the Senate, which also remains to be seen until the election results are in. If Trump wins, the Democrats are not going to just roll over and let the Project 2025 authors take over the country and order Trump to initiate a theocratic state, which he is unlikely to do in any case given what he has said about that project—along with his propensity to go his own way, which can change by the whims of the day and what he’s been watching on television or who he last spoke to—so the usual checks and balances as initiated by all parties to keep in line the current party in the White House will be implemented.
People talk about a second Civil War. That also is not going to happen. Sure, there are a handful of doomsday preppers, militia members, MAGA cult followers, white supremacists, skinheads, proud boys, and the like who could raise hell for a few weeks and lead to pockets of violence here and there, but could any of these knuckleheads and wingnuts organize themselves into massive armies numbering in the hundreds of thousands and line up in Gettysburg to face who? Hundreds of thousands of blue-haired, mask-wearing, hooded Antifa members armed with spray cans, frozen water bottles, and socks filled with rocks? This is not 1861.
Of course, I could be wrong. This really could be the election that destroys the country, in which America devolves into a socialist state while the Republicans sit back and watch it all unfold without a fight, or the United States becomes a Handmaid’s Tale of patriarchal, totalitarian theonomic Republic of Gilead while Democrats pack their U-Hauls and move to Canada.
But I doubt it.
Scott Alexander, who writes Astral Codex Ten, states that…
ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein
I think the strongest argument against Trump is the argument from authoritarianism. But what is authoritarianism in this context? As I argued years ago, Trump isn’t Hitler, isn’t going to put people in death camps, and probably his approval rating among minorities won’t even dip below the 30s. So what am I worried about?
I stumbled on an obscure Substack that I found interesting.
The polls are weird rn.
Something strange is going on with polling around the 2024 US presidential election.
Conclusion
We have no idea who will win this election but it is an extremely important one.
I read lots more articles about the election which I will not take the time to include in this essay.
I would also like to note that there was no October Surprise, which is itself an ironic surprise. And It seems that AI generated deep fakes have not materialized to the degree that some feared. And I would also like to note a concern of some that I share, that if Trump wins he is unlikely to last four years and JD Vance could become President.
No matter who wins, on Wednesday morning perhaps as much as one-third of Americans will be angry. And some amongst each side will see the other as an evil to be destroyed, necessary to save their country. But hopefully the group that is not captured by political identity and culture war will somehow unite and grow as a force for positive change.