It is the day before the 2020 US presidential election. Although Canadian, I have been following American politics since I was a teenager. In 1968 I was expecting and hoping that Bobby Kennedy would become the next President of the United States.
But today I am far, far more interested in the transition from Game A to Game B than a transition from Trump to Biden.
The RCP betting odds favour Biden over Trump by about 2 to 1. But Trump having a 1 in 3 chance of winning a second term term is uncomfortable. I can readily identify with Nervous Democrats.
2016 was a shock to me as it was to many people, including most pollsters and pundits. I had not expected Trump to run. I did not think he would win the nomination of his party. And I did not think he would beat Hillary. I was wrong every step of the way and that turned out to be good for me. (And Pat was right every step of the way.) It was not until the election results from Florida began coming in that the thought entered my mind that Trump could become President. In 2020 Florida will again be an early indicator of how this election will go.
The Brexit referendum and the Trump victory led me to rethink everything. I realized that there was much I did not understand. I began realizing the importance of the narratives, the stories, that we believe. Reality was not what I thought it was. That journey eventually led me to Game B, which is also quite a story.
In the aftermath of the 2016 election I discovered that Michael Moore had predicted a Trump victory. He had tried to warn the Democratic Party. What does Michael Moore say now?
Michael Moore predicted Trump's path to victory exactly right
Like him or not, Michael Moore was spot-on about the entire 2016 presidential election.
Michael Moore says Trump 'evil genius,' warns Biden's poll lead 'not accurate count'
Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore is warning that Joe Biden's hefty leads in nearly every national poll is not accurate and is calling President Trump an "evil genius" who could well figure out a way to win reelection.
The left-wing director told The Hill that 2020 is beginning to look a lot like 2016, when pollsters predicted Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide, prompting the Democratic candidate to stop campaigning in Wisconsin and Michigan — two states she went on to lose.
A very early believer in the possibility of a Trump victory was Scott Adams, the Dilbert cartoonist, who wrote in 2015,
Adams said that, based on his observations, he was willing to predict that Trump would be the next president.
What does Scott Adams say now?
Dilbert Cartoonist Scott Adams: Trump lost my vote over poor debate performance
On his Oct. 2 Periscope and podcast (“Real Coffee with Scott Adams” episode 1142) Adams explained that he knew that he would get a lot of attention by saying that he would not vote for Trump. But rather than get embraced by Democrats for making the switch, “they shit on me, in buckets,” Adams said. And so for that reason, “They switched me back to vote for Trump.”
The current RealClearPolitics electoral map has Biden at 216 and Trump at 125 with 197 a toss up. A Biden blow out is possible and a Trump blowout is possible, but unlikely. Everything in between blowouts is possible making the whole matter quite exciting.
The Senate races are also uncertain in 9 states. A 50/50 Senate is possible. That outcome makes winning the White House even more important.
Scanning the political headlines leads me to the same conclusion that I have come to for several years. The USA is hopelessly polarized. The 2020 election is likely to make the divisions even worse no matter who wins.
Nat Silver of fivethirtyeight gives Trump only a 10 percent chance of winning.
I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win
A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too.
And I had a look at the Trafalgar Group, led by Robert Cahaly, who got 2016 right.
Trafalgar Group: Polls Predict Trump Victory in Election 2020
This time around, it’s almost a replay. Everyone else is producing polls showing Trump being defeated by Biden, but not Trafalgar. To be sure, the polling company’s methodology – such as teasing out so-called “shy” Trump voters – is not without its critics. “There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Robert Cahaly, of Trafalgar, told The Hill.
He told CNN he thinks that will be enough for Trump to win in 2020.
Looking through my Game A Game B lens, I do not think the 2020 will make much difference to the big picture. We live in a world with GIANT problems and both Biden and Trump are midgets. Neither is capable of leading the kind of transformation needed to save civilization.