I was wrong about Donald Trump in 2015. I did not think he would run for President. I did not think he would be the Republican nominee. I did not think he would beat Hillary. It was not until the vote count from Florida starting coming in on the evening of November 8, 2016 that it occurred to me that he could win. Later that evening he won three key swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and became President Elect.
Being wrong is a good learning experience and over the last four years my worldview has changed significantly. I am quicker now to say I DO NOT KNOW. Nevertheless, I still have opinions, but I try to hold them more lightly.
In late May and early June the betting odds on the Presidential election shifted dramatically in favour of Joe Biden. Now, at the end of July, his lead seems unassailable. But November seems far, far away. I agree with those who believe that Trump might well try tactics that were unimaginable in the past. Yes, he could win a second term, but I think he will lose. Pat, who was right every step of the way in 2015 and 2016, disagrees with me. But the more important question is what Trump will do if he loses.
The Ajijic Book Club selection for August, 2018 was Fascism: A Warning by Madeleine Albright. In my book report I wrote, and still believe,
In my opinion, discussing the Trump presidency in a book entitled Fascism: A Warning is not wise. Firstly, the word fascism is too burdened by the dark history of Nazi Germany to be useful in other important discussions. Secondly, the differences between Trump and the other characters in the book and the differences between the United States of America and the other countries discussed are greater than the similarities. Thirdly, using a theme from the past obscures the unique aspects of the present situation. However, this does not mean that I do not see significant value in Albright’s warning.
But now there are serious questions about Trump's intentions and what he will do if he loses the election.
In my summary of last month I mentioned Umair Haque, a thinker who was new to me, and initially impressed me. I now want to focus on his writings in July and use them as a springboard for my own thoughts. I want to get my thoughts on the record so that I can look back on them in the aftermath of November 3, 2020.
There Are 120 Days Left to Save American Democracy by Umair Haque Jul 5
And so it’s easy to predict, already, just what’s going to happen in 120 days. He’s going to try to steal an election. You know it, and I know it, even if many of us don’t want to admit it.
My comment: No, it is not easy to predict the future. In a time of great crisis with heightened uncertainty, our present time, it is even more difficult to predict the future. What the situation will be on November 4th is very unclear. Trump, today, probably does not know what his intentions will be on that date. And no one can know for certain the intentions of someone else. True, I do not want to admit what Haque asserts and I feel much resistance to his ideas. But I am struggling with my own emotions, trying to be aware of them and trying to be rational, no easy task.
This is American Democracy’s Last Chance by Umair Haque Jul 18
The endgame of America’s fascist implosion was always — always — obvious. That may be hard to hear. But it’s true. The institutions the fascists had built — camps, secret polices, secret trials, and so on — were one day going to be used against “real” Americans too. One day in the very near future. For what purpose? For taking away their powers, rights, voices. To make them pliable, submissive. If they weren’t going to be part of the fascist project — then they’d better not say anything or do anything to stop it.
My comment: The future is not obvious to me.
This is How Martial Law Happens to a Country by Umair Haque Jul 20
A Desperate President. A Secret Police. This is How Trump Steals the Next Election.
My comment: Trump will probably try to take full advantage of circumstances. But the idea of a mastermind with a master plan is one that I intuitively reject. Haque sounds like someone pushing a conspiracy theory.
Donald Trump, American Dictator by Umair Haque Jul 30
I don’t think it’s in any way implausible to think that after Trump really lashes out with Gestapos, shock troops, abductions, declares a state of emergency, proclaims martial law — that the Dems will agree to postpone the election. I think that it’s eminently possible, if not probable, that they’d agree to do it, as long as Trump threw them a bone. “I promise to leave office by May,” he’d say — and of course not mean a word.
My comment: What Haque thinks is not implausible is to me very highly implausible. If Trump tried what Haque fears, it is very plausible to me that there would be massive demonstrations in the streets that would make the George Floyd marches seem like casual walks around the block on a sunny day. Haque seems to be trying to make what is possible, almost anything, become probable.
Trump is Grooming America for Dictatorship by Umair Haque Jul 31
Newsflash: Don’t Rely on Mitch McConnell to Save You From Donald Trump
There’s a thing that authoritarians do that us survivors of authoritarianism know all too well. They surround themselves with flunkies and cronies. All of whom are just that little bit more respectable, seemingly reasonable, than they are, polite, well-mannered, even mild-mannered sorts. Senators, perhaps, Congressmen, politicians, pundits of all kinds.
My comment: I am unconvinced that all those around Trump are flunkies and cronies. In previous articles, Haque describes those who disagree with him as blind idiots. Haque takes a grain of truth and magnifies it into a mountain.
I am disappointed in Umair Haque. It seems to me that he is making many serious errors. He takes a very complex matter and makes it seem simple. He seems to be caught up in the outrage culture, trying to trigger emotions that cloud sound reasoning in his readers. He is condescending towards all who do not see the world his way, which makes him seem arrogant rather than humble. He conflates the possible and the probable. He favors certainty over uncertainty. He seems overly influenced by his own life experience with totalitarianism.
However, I am not completely unaffected by what Umair Haque so strongly warns against. I am well aware that the appeasement of Hitler was one of the biggest mistakes in modern history. I am well aware of how wrong I was about Trump in 2015 and 2016. I am well aware of how wrong I have been about many things, twice needing to change my worldview.
Although Haque implies otherwise, there are serious people thinking seriously about what Trump may do.
This 'War Game' Maps Out What Happens If The President Contests The Election by Meghna Chakrabarti and Stefano Kotsonis July 28, 2020
In June, Ret. Col. Lawrence Wilkerson joined us for a conversation about the use of the military amid protests against police brutality. During the conversation, Col. Wilkerson revealed he is part of two groups devoted to protecting the November elections: the National Task Force on Election Crises and the Transition Integrity Project.
It is my intention to google, from time to time, the two groups mentioned above. I will also scan what Umair Haque writes from time to time. And while doing so, I will be aware of how incomplete my own knowledge on this matter is.
National Task Force on Election Crises
Where the System May Break by David Frum July 31, 2020
A war-game exercise simulating the 2020 election unmasked some key vulnerabilities.
Earlier this summer, 67 former government officials and academic students of government gathered over four sessions of the nonpartisan Transition Integrity Project to analyze those questions. They included Michael Steele, a former chair of the Republican National Committee; John Podesta, the former White House chief of staff who chaired Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign; former Republican members of Congress; and a host of former elected officials, government staffers, consultants, and even journalists. I joined two of the sessions.