Henk Wilms and I were once spiritual brothers, members of the same church, with very similar worldviews. We met soon after Henk arrived in Calgary in 1980 and we have remained friends. He moved to Aberdeen, Scotland in 1998. I cannot recall a single point of conflict between us during the time we both lived in Calgary.
Early in the 1990s our church had a crisis and our lives took took very different paths. I lost my faith while Henk continued his Christian journey, but our friendship survived. From time to time Henk would return to Calgary and we would get together at a pub, leaving us both with fond memories.
Henk wrote a book, What the Hell?! An Unexpected Story of Amazing Grace…, published in 2016. I had seen an early draft and encourage him to finish the project. What I wrote about his book in my book report gives some more background about our relationship.
In 2012, after retiring, I moved to Ajijic, Jalisco, Mexico. Henk was unemployed for an extended period of time so we both had lots of time on our hands. We engaged in an exchange of many emails discussing a variety of topics in considerable depth. We created a great volume of emails, far too many to preserve in this record. These emails are a treasure trove of my thinking in real time! I hope to examine this record and identify areas where my thinking has changed.
For the past twenty-five years Henk and I have had very different worldviews and today agreed on very little. I tried very hard to find common ground but ultimately failed. At times our exchanges became intense as we struggled with considerable frustration to understand each other. Our friendship survived, actually it thrived as our respect for each our grew.
Now in 2020, I am looking back on some of our emails, a discussion between a secular liberal and a Christian concervative. To an extent that we are both comfortable, we will include descriptions of our different personalities. At no time will I leave in the public domain anything that Henk does not want there. I have done some light editing, mostly correcting spelling errors and deleting information that is not relevant. And again, I want to express my gratitude to Henk for the effort he put into our discussions.
Henk is a very private person whereas I am a very public person and I will respect that difference. Our email exchanges reflect our different personalities but we share some characteristics. We are both authentic, honest and straightforward and were willing and able to have good faith discussions.
Fri, Feb 24, 2012, 10:42 AM - Our emails would go back and forth as we inserted our comments and created a discussion.
My comments made in 2020
The above exchange captures the flavour of our email discussions.
My first comment on the content is to note that in the last eight years there has been significant decline in valuing truth and honesty. The problem we saw in 2012 is much, much worse in 2020. I am much more aware now of how very difficult it is to get an accurate picture of anything.
My second comment is to note that I lost the optimism that I expressed in 2012. Now I cannot shake the feeling that our current civilization will probably collapse, but hopefully not in my lifetime. However, I remain watchful of the efforts of those attempting to create conditions which will allow a a path through the current meta-crisis to emerge.
Henk and I often discussed economic matters. My distrust of free markets has grown since 2012. And today I am less interested in reforms and more interested in transition to a radically new economic system.
My appreciation of the incompleteness of my knowledge, and that of everyone, has grown in recent years. I have found some very intelligent thinkers who have a capacity to absorb information that greatly exceeds mine. But their knowledge is incomplete, very incomplete. The best of them understand this and therefore embrace the idea that solutions to problems can only emerge from large groups of people working together.
Sunday, May 13, 2012 7:55 PM
My comments made in 2020
In 2012 I was far more supportive of global economic systems than I am now. At that time I thought incremental ongoing reform was the best path forward. I have lost confidence in that approach.
In 2012 I was a believer in the current system, although I saw the need for significant reforms. I continue to think that the actions taken in 2008 probably prevented a Great Depression. However, I now see the global financial system as extremely complex and very fragile. It has an unsatiable appetite for growth and never ending growth is unsustainable. It would not take much to trigger another global financial crisis, although so far during the coronavirus crisis it is standing up quite well. The key ingredient for stability is continued confidence in progress, in growth. If that is lost and fear sets in, the system could collapse.
In 2012 I described the debt taken on by the USA for the purpose of ending the Great Recession as massive. So the debt taken on to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic can only be described as supermassive. Debt with low interests rates appears to be a very good deal, irresistible. And by August 2020 this solution seems to be working, as reflected by stock markets recovering from shocking lows. The aftermath of the Great Recession was not what I expected. From that I learned that I do not understand very much about the global financial system. Now I am not even trying to understand economic matters. But, intuitively, it seems to me that a fragile system has become more fragile and the risk of collapse is rising.
The performance of the media has steadily deteriorated since 2012. And the public is now more easily led by their favored source of information. And an already complex world has become even more complex and more difficult to understand.
I was pleased when Obama won the 2012 election. Looking back, I am disappointed with his accomplishments.
Now, in 2020, there are credible predictions of a Constitutional crisis in the wake of the November elections, not hard to imagine. Some thinkers worry about the convergence of a second wave coronavirus crisis, an economic crisis, and a political/constitutional crisis in November. Some worry about the potential for martial law in the USA no matter who wins the presidency.
Sent: Monday, May 21, 2012 8:35 PM
Jun 9, 2012, 1:13 PM 09June2012 Henk.docx.pdf
I captured this discussion in a document rather than in the body of an email.
My comments made in 2020
There is one very big change in my thinking. Today I would not say "I think that, in spite of many very serious problems, the system we have works, although it almost failed in 2008. But we can only speculate whether some other system would work better. I would rather work to improve the current system than make radical changes to it."
Today I doubt that, all things considered, the economic/financial system can be improved. And I doubt that it can be radically changed. I now view it as a complex system that is very fragile and unsustainable. Not only should we (the big we, the human race) speculate about a better system, we should try to design and implement one. Many of Henk's concerns about the present system are valid. Many of my observations about the benefits of the present system are valid. An honest inventory of the harms and benefits of the current system needs to be on the table supporting any effort to design a new system. All historical experience needs to be on the table. All the interactions of all complex systems need to be understood. To achieve this would require the cooperation of many people in many countries, unimaginable at this time.
Since 2012 I have become less impressed with China with each passing year. I learned a lot from reading Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos. I reviewed this book, which was an Ajijic Book Club selection earlier this year.
Most of the participants in the current system will continue to try to sustain the status quo and seeking with incremental progress. I now believe that capitalism is unsustainable and failing. The world now seems to be in a liminal space. On the fringes of society are some impressive efforts to create a new civilization. I am hopeful, but not optimistic, that those efforts will succeed.
Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 9:47 AM
My comments made in 2020
In 2012 I thought collapse was possible. Now I think it is probable but the timeframe is uncertain. I now have a deeper understanding of the problems and why reforms are almost impossible. Politcal reforms are probably not possible without educational reforms which are not possible without political reforms. Economic reforms are probably not possible without political reforms which are not possible without economic reforms. Civilization can best be understood as numerous complex systems which all reinforce each other. Meaningful change requires substancially changing all systems at the same time, which seems impossible.
My conversations with Henk in 2020 would be quite different from those we had in 2012.